Article by Tony Blair And Bertie Ahern: The Good Friday Agreement 21 years On

This very week, twenty-one years ago, we put our signatures to the Good Friday Agreement. Our names were followed by leaders and campaigners from across the political spectrum in the countries we then led, who had worked so painstakingly towards peace. It was a monumental moment for our countries, and the people in the UK and Ireland seized the opportunities it presented.

But when we felt the ‘hand of history upon our shoulder’ on April 10, 1998, it was pushing us forwards to begin a process, not signalling the end of one. In our eyes, the people of Ireland North and South have been signing that Agreement every day since. A series of momentary pen to paper signatures do not enable a lasting peace; it is the everyday actions and interactions of people, businesses, civil society, politicians and governments that do so.

That is why we feel duty-bound, a generation on, to stress to Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn the ongoing significance of the Good Friday Agreement, to add context in the light of the ongoing Brexit debate and set out our shared view of what should happen between now and the newly announced ‘flextension’ to October 31 to protect peace and prosperity.

Call for Calm

Firstly, Theresa May and her colleagues in Parliament must learn from previous mistakes and use this extension to encourage calm amidst the chaos. Over the next six months it is likely elements within the Conservative Party will continue to seek to oust her and push for a new Prime Minister to fight for what they call a ‘proper Brexit,’ the details of which have never been spelled out by Boris Johnson or anyone else. Whatever criticisms people may have of Mrs May, her party should reject such manoeuvring as the country – which should come first – does not need any more instability of its own making.

There will be Local Elections, almost certainly now European Elections, and Britain will soon enter its fourth year since the result of the 2016 referendum. Conversations between campaigners, politicians and the public will at times be difficult. But politics is always full of difficult conversations. The important thing is to get to the right place in the end.

Of all of the meetings we were involved in as Prime Minister and Taoiseach leading up to the Good Friday Agreement, none were more difficult than those with family members of victims of the Troubles. Widows of British Army soldiers and Royal Ulster Constabulary officers, sons and daughters, wives and husbands, mothers and fathers of Nationalists, Republicans, Loyalists. There were those who could not understand why we were looking to put together a deal with people who had killed their loved ones, or releasing from prison people who had committed horrendous crimes. There are few more difficult conversations than that. Yet there were also those who made us promise to make it work to ensure people do not have to go through what they went through.

Collectively these conversations made us determined to ensure their courage would form the basis upon which those following could build a better future.

Yet in practice, it was time away from these conversations that enabled the Good Friday Agreement to come together. It was time away from the media storm, in the company of rivals with differing versions of what was right, and what was wrong, what was possible, and what was not. People with the right personality, who could find resolution when surrounded by uncertainty and competing visions of the future, to put together a new power-sharing agreement.

Of course, nobody should compare the tragedy of The Troubles to Brexit, but as the rhetoric becomes stronger, the language more divisive and inflammatory, the division in the Tory and Labour parties more evident, the necessity for calm matters even more. Having conversations with the public matters. Speak to those who voted Remain, the 48%, alongside those who voted Leave, and try to understand both. Speak to those who do not tweet incessantly or rage endlessly on radio phone-ins, as well as those who do. Understand that members of the public are undergoing the same process of churn and reflection as the politicians, and give them permission to be honest about that. Getting away from, or at least above or around, the media chaos to do this matters. Getting the right personalities together from across parties matters. Teams of rivals must be built.

For some the defining image of the Northern Ireland peace process, in some ways a crowning moment unimaginable even as we signed the Agreement with Ian Paisley baying ‘treachery and treason’ at the gates, is that of the Loyalist politician and Protestant religious leader laughing and smiling almost a decade later alongside former IRA leader Martin McGuiness. Even we, back in 1998, could not have dared predict that one day Rev Paisley would be First Minister, and Martin McGuinness Deputy First Minister.

At Martin’s funeral in 2017, Bill Clinton said of Martin McGuiness that ‘he expanded the definition of us and shrunk the definition of them.’ On Brexit, it is time to do the same, to elevate the discussion above individual interests to those of the collective, to expand the definition of us and shrink the definition of them. It is also time to be brutally honest about the real choices and the real consequences of those choices.

Call for Clarity

There is no variation of Brexit that can strengthen the relationship between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. There is no variation of Brexit that will grow the economy of the UK any time soon. Brexit, particularly a no deal Brexit with the risk of a hard border, is both the most serious threat to the Good Friday Agreement since it was created, and to the Union in our lifetime.

It is time to acknowledge the reality of these challenges, to let clarity triumph over ambiguity, and work collectively to overcome them. It is our belief, or at least certainly our fervent hope, that the Good Friday Agreement will survive Brexit.

The acceptance of the principle of consent in the Good Friday Agreement was a Unionist/ Nationalist trade-off allowing the majority of people in Northern Ireland to stay part of the UK if they wish, whilst also enabling aspirations for a united Ireland to be heard. Out of that came the power-sharing agreement, a new police force in Northern Ireland, changes to the criminal justice system, a whole lot of cultural, symbolic questions being resolved.

Part of that nationalist aspiration is to have an open border between North and South; which then leads to broader questions about Single Market Access and a Customs Union.
Therein lies the problem. It is no coincidence that several universities and think tanks are now examining what a united Ireland would mean and how it would happen. You cannot walk around the island of Ireland without being asked about the future of a united Ireland — and that has resulted from the people who took up the position of being Brexiteers.

Call for Confirmation

It is precisely because of issues such as the border between North and South that there should be a confirmatory vote on whatever now emerges from the Brexit process in Parliament. The Irish Border question is a metaphor for the entire negotiation. It is not possible to have frictionless trade outside the Single Market, so the question is how much friction, and that in turns defines any Brexit Agreement that will pass through Parliament.

Such is the variation of Brexit deals that have been debated, and the vastness of the Brexit promises made in 2016, it is unlikely to be what the public voted for. They, the people of the UK, should have the final say, be asked if now, knowing all that they do, they still wish to proceed, on whatever basis is agreed by government and Parliament.

Following the Good Friday Agreement, there were two referenda. The Agreement referendum based on facts not promises, clarity not ambiguity, received a 71% yes vote in Northern Ireland. The related referendum in the Republic of Ireland achieved a 94% yes.

There is now time for a confirmatory referendum given the EU has expanded the deadline to October 31. It is this that must be pursued, and Mrs May should take the lead in that process.

It was not solely through the words we scribbled over on April 10 1998 that peace came to Northern Ireland. It was the values people ascribed to as a result. Reconciliation. Tolerance. Mutual trust. Respect for the views of others. A shared desire to reach the right conclusion on terms that all but the most extreme can live with and accept. That is the approach needed on Brexit now. The extension gives us another chance. We must not waste it. We must use it wisely, and deliver the 3 Cs – Calm, Clarity, and a Confirmatory vote. Only then can come the fourth C, Closure.

Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern